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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Touchback. PENALTY on TB-89-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.15 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP