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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to LV 30 for 7 yards (21-G.Conley; 55-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.84 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model