Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 93

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(7:49) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to LV 45, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.20 EP
60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 93, worth -5.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model