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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 4

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 4-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP