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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to LV 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LV 46 for 14 yards (32-M.Walton).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model