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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 8-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model