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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to CIN 32, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on CIN-29-T.McRae, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model