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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 4-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.29 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model