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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.11 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model