4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 46

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model