4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 21

New England Patriots 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Edelman (42-M.Burnett).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.75 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.66 EP