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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.87 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model