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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 58

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:08) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to PIT 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP