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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 60

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to PIT 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-50-R.Humber. PENALTY on NE-53-K.Van Noy, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 14.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.21 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP