Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

(5:37) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to MIN 22, Center-92-J.Denney. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 30 for 8 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model