Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 84

Miami Dolphins 17 – Minnesota Vikings 27

(12:07) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to MIN 45, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model