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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 7

Miami Dolphins 7 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(:18) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.84 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model