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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 2-M.Haack punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.90 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP