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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin to KC 10 for 26 yards (21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.75 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP