Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 94

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to LAC 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 39, and recovers at LAC 40. 20-D.King to LAC 40 for no gain (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.53 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 94, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model