Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(1:18) 5-D.Jones punts 39 yards to KC 27, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model