4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(:19) 2-D.Colquitt punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.25 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -1.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model