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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to LAC 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-35-C.Ward.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.62 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP