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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 8

New York Jets 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model