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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 62

New York Jets 15 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to HOU 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-D.Carter to HOU 17 for 4 yards (40-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model