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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 75

Houston Texans 16 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 8-T.Daniel punts 51 yards to NYJ 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 36 for 12 yards (38-G.Howell; 33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model