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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Jets 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to HOU 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-D.Carter to HOU 31 for 15 yards (83-E.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model