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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to CHI 9, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.89 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model