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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 88

Chicago Bears 24 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to GB 37, Center-48-P.Scales. 37-J.Jackson MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.15 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model