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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 6

Chicago Bears 21 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 1-C.Parkey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.67 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.98 EP