Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 54-J.Crawford and 84-L.Kendricks reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 39 yards to CHI 41, Center-43-H.Bradley. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at GB 15 for 44 yards (6-J.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model