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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 49

Chicago Bears 14 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:30) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 30-B.Cunningham. 30-B.Cunningham up the middle to 50 for -1 yards (98-F.Brown; 16-J.Kumerow).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model