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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 48

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to GB 4, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model