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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 89

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 84-L.Kendricks and 54-J.Crawford reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to CHI 39, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.59 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 89, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP