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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 83

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to GB 39, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.93 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP