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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 50

Denver Broncos 16 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at DEN 39 for -11 yards (22-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model