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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 65

Denver Broncos 16 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short left to 23-D.Booker to 50 for 15 yards (55-G.Avery).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.02 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -1.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model