4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 10

Cleveland Browns 17 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.11 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 10, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model