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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 24

Denver Broncos 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 8-B.McManus 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model