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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 83

Denver Broncos 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 3-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to CLE 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 45 for 8 yards (11-R.Cracraft; 47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 41, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model