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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 17-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.87 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model