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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 26

Denver Broncos 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model