Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(2:59) 2-A.Lee punts 37 yards to ATL 28, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model