Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 40 – Arizona Cardinals 14

(1:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to ARI 25, Center-46-J.Condo. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 32 for 7 yards (42-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.46 EP
43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model