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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 40

What Actually Happened

(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-M.Glennon pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ATL 21 for 12 yards (34-B.Poole).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP