Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 86

Atlanta Falcons 40 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(7:14) 5-M.Bosher punts 50 yards to ARI 36, Center-46-J.Condo, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.20 EP
61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model