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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to ARI 14, Center-46-J.Condo. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 22 for 8 yards (83-R.Gage).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model