Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 40 yards to ARI 30, Center-46-J.Condo. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ATL 44 for 26 yards (28-J.Bethel). PENALTY on ARI-30-R.Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 46.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.07 EP
72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model