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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to ARI 39, Center-46-J.Condo, downed by ATL-83-R.Gage.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.00 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP