Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 20

(3:52) 2-A.Lee punts 44 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.49 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model